NEW YORK / RankWire.AI / – The U.S. stock bull market has now entered its fifth year, following four consecutive years of gains. The S&P 500 has increased approximately 119% from its bear-market closing low on October 12, 2022, according to Truist analysis. That year, the index closed at 3,577.03 in November 2022, its lowest point since 2020. By Friday, it reached 7,811.54, reflecting a 14.1% rise in 2026 and approaching record levels. For the week, the index also gained 1.2%.
This current phase ranks as the 11th bull market since the 1950s in the historical series. It has become the seventh to reach at least four years in duration. The 119% increase is still below the 184% average advance seen across the studied bull markets. Historically, earlier cycles produced much more significant cumulative gains, such as the 2009-to-2020 bull market which rose 401%, and the 1987-to-2000 cycle which increased 582%. These periods remain among the most robust in the historical record.
Many past bull markets that reached this stage have continued to yield positive returns. Out of the previous 10 bull markets, six lasted longer than four years. During markets that extended into a fifth year, the average return was 12%, with a median gain of 15%. The study also notes an average maximum drawdown of about 14% during these fifth years. These figures describe previous market trends rather than guaranteeing similar outcomes for the current cycle.
Earnings growth underpins the current market momentum
Corporate profits have been strengthening during this latest phase of the rally. FactSet indicated that S&P 500 third-quarter earnings were tracking 29.6% above the same period last year as of October 9. This would mark a third consecutive quarter with year-over-year earnings growth exceeding 25%. As of September 30, the growth rate was 29.2%. Of the 19 index companies reporting earnings by October 9, 84% surpassed analysts’ average estimates, with aggregate earnings beating forecasts by 4.9%.
Forecasts for the remainder of the year remain optimistic. Analysts project fourth-quarter S&P 500 earnings will increase by 27.6% compared to last year. The full-year 2026 earnings growth is expected to reach 32.4%. About 40% of upward revisions to 2026 earnings estimates come from semiconductor and hardware companies, which also account for roughly 75% of revisions to 2027 estimates so far in 2023, according to Barclays research. These figures highlight technology-related firms as central to ongoing earnings adjustments.
Higher interest rates remain a market backdrop
The upward movement in stocks continues despite elevated U.S. interest rates and high government bond yields. On September 16, the Federal Reserve raised its federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00%. The Fed noted that economic activity was expanding at a solid rate and that inflation remained elevated. Its September projections indicated median 2026 economic growth of 2.3%, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%. The next policy meeting is scheduled from October 27 to October 28.
Long-term Treasury yields also stay near multi-year highs as the bull market enters its fifth year. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was 5.24% on October 9, with the 30-year yield at 5.60%. Despite these higher borrowing costs, the S&P 500 closed that day up 0.6%, finishing at 7,811.54. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.6%. Stocks are approaching five years of gains, supported by strong earnings growth and interest rates still above earlier bull-market levels.